Thursday, March 22, 2012

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Human-Level AGI Within ~10 Years and AGI in the Formal Academia

A comment on Ben Goertzel's post: Ray Kurzweil's (Sometimes) Wrong Predictions

Todor "Tosh" Arnaudov said... , 21/3/2011, 8:53 PM

"...ragtag groups of mavericks"... :D

My personal prediction from 2 years ago [in an interview, posted there] which I still hold is that there will be human-level AGI at one-level or another (even if it's childish or incomplete) by the end of the decade, and once a break-through is made, the rest would be easy.

In my opinion there's an apparent technological spike in the last few years, and plenty of computational resources which are under-utilized.

Another support is that there are a lot of foundations and experimental data which are accumulating in neuroscience, developmental psychology, cognitive science, neurolinguistics, etc. etc..

It is AGI-related, even if it's not formally declared as such yet, I myself find correlations and evidences matching with my theoretical speculative work, while I even can't fully concentrate on this research yet.
Neuroscience produces a big amount of experimental data and hypotheses, which have to be systematized.

IMHO soon AGI researchers and even tools will start to infer insights by automatic crunching of that data, and workable models might be shaped quickly.

I recently noticed also that a lot of multidisciplinary research centers in Universities in Europe and the USA are starting to emerge, devoted to computational neuroscience and multisensory integration by the brain, and developmental psychology, which is one-step closer to AGI going into serious established research.

The IMCLEVER project of EU, Juergen Schmidhuber, Marcus Hutter, Shane Legg's work, I'd mention also the directions of the Italian Institute of Technology (IIT), last autumn they had somewhat AGI-sh PhDs program starting in the field of robotics.

The AGI conferences, AGIRI's Summer schools, two AGI courses at Plovdiv University...

In general, I think there are evidences that AGI is getting closer to the established academia.


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